Bracketology: Week 12

WEEK 12

Automatic Bids

American East Conference
Most likely: Albany (4-0)
Others: UMBC, Stony Brook, Hartford

Big East Conference

Most likely: Notre Dame (4-1), Villanova (4-1), Syracuse (4-1)
Others: St. John’s, Georgetown
Notre Dame matches up with Syracuse this weekend with an opportunity to claim the top seed in the Big East tournament and add another top 10 win.

Colonial Athletic Conference
Most likely: Penn State (5-0), Drexel (5-1)
Others: Towson, Hofstra
Penn State has clinched the top seed in the CAA tournament which starts 5/3.

Eastern College Athletic Conference
Most likely: Loyola (6-1), Denver (5-1)
Others: Denver, Fairfield
Fairfield took down #1 Denver this weekend in a game that reshapes this ECAC race.  

Ivy Group
Most likely: Cornell (5-0)
Others: Princeton, Yale, Penn
This is Cornell’s AQ to lose.

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference
Most likely: Marist (5-0)
Others: Jacksonville, Siena
Marist avoided an upset this weekend with an overtime win against Siena.  

Northeast Conference
Most likely: Bryant (3-1), Quinnipiac (3-1), Sacred Heart (3-1)
Others: Robert Morris
Mount St. Mary’s took down Bryant for its first conference win this season.  That certainly opens things up here.

Patriot League
Most likely: Lehigh (6-0), Bucknell (5-1)
Others: Army, Colgate
Lehigh continued to roll this weekend, defeating Lafayette.  They have now won 5 straight.

At-Large Bids (RPI in parenthesis)
1. Denver (1): Even with the loss, this team is a lock for the tournament.
2. Maryland (2): Maryland barely squeaked by Yale this weekend in what was a controversial finish. This team is trending down.
3. UNC (4): ACC tournament will solidify the order of these at-large bids.
4. Duke (7): After the ACC tournament, Duke has Marquette won won their home opener.
5. Bucknell (8): Bucknell shut out Colgate in the 4th to pick up an impressive late-April road win. They face Army next.
6. Syracuse (10): Syracuse has its eyes on the #1 seed in the BE tournament. It needs a win against ND and a Villanova loss. A ND win would also give ‘Cuse a Top 5 win.
7. Yale (11): Yale barely missed a great opportunity to improve its at-large resume this weekend. The loss snapped its 5 game winning streak.
8. Pennsylvania (14): If Harvard beats Yale this weekend, Penn would be out of the Ivy tournament. That would mean the Bellarmine game would be Penn’s last regular season game and would leave it as a must-win.

Last Four Out:
1. Johns Hopkins (16): This team will be in the tournament when it is all said and done. Still, Hopkins is starting to see the importance of an AQ as the number of at-large bids diminishes.
2. Ohio State (12): Ohio State now has a chance at a top 20 win against Fairfield this weekend.
3. Drexel (15): Drexel won this week but will see its RPI fall next week against High Point.
4. Princeton (18): Princeton clinched a spot in the Ivy tournament. Now, they have Cornell this weekend.

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