Bracketology: Week 11

 

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Yale avoided a potentially disaster loss last night with its overtime win against Stony Brook. This week, they are featured on the potential bracket for the first time since we began this feature midseason.

Automatic Bids

American East Conference
Most likely: Albany (3-0), Hartford (2-1)
Others: UMBC, Stony Brook
Albany looks to be in cruise control, scoring over 20 goals in every single conference game so far.

Big East Conference
Most likely: Villanova (4-0), Notre Dame (3-1), Syracuse (3-1)
Others: St. John’s, Georgetown
Villanova travels up to ND this weekend. Villanova has the chance to clinch the top seed in the tournament. ND still has to play Syracuse while Nova still has Providence.

Colonial Athletic Conference
Most likely: Penn State (4-0), Towson (3-1), Drexel (4-1)
Others: Hofstra
Penn State took down Drexel and Towson in consecutive weeks to improve to 4-0. They will finish the season on the road against UDel and Hofstra.

Eastern College Athletic Conference
Most likely: Denver (5-0), Loyola (5-1), Ohio State (3-2)
Others: Fairfield
After entering the Top 20 for the first time in program history, Bellarmine’s tournament chances took a big hit with a loss to Hobart. Meanwhile, Denver salvaged a win in overtime against Loyola to improve to 5-0 in the conference.

Ivy Group
Most likely: Cornell (4-0), Yale (3-2)
Others: Princeton, Harvard
Perhaps no conference changed as much as this conference did this weekend. Yale picked up wins against Brown and Stony Brook over the past couple of days. The big story, however, are the two upsets. Princeton’s at-large hopes took a big hit with a loss to Dartmouth. Meanwhile, Harvard moves into a position to potentially knock Penn out of the Ivy tournament.

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference
Most likely: Marist (4-0)
Others: Jacksonville, Siena
Only one team will make it from this conference. Marist won a critical road game against Jacksonville to move one step closer to the NCAA tournament.

Northeast Conference
Most likely: Bryant (3-0)
Others: Robert Morris, Quinnipiac, SHU
Kevin Massa and Bryant picked up a 15-6 win against Wagner. They still have Mount St. Mary’s and SHU left in conference play.

Patriot League
Most likely: Lehigh (5-0), Bucknell (4-1)
Others: Colgate, Army
Lehigh is the talk of the Patriot League now after they took down Bucknell 11-7 on the road.

At-Large Bids (RPI in parenthesis)
1. North Carolina (3): UNC handled Hofstra soundly 14-5 to all but end Hofstra’s hopes at an at-large bid.
2. Syracuse (4): Syracuse came back from down 10-5 in the 4th to defeat Rutgers on Saturday.
3. Duke (7): Duke has the longest winning streak in the nation and has all but locked another appearance.
4. Maryland (8): Maryland dropped its rivalry match against Hopkins this weekend. The offense has now failed to score 10 goals in 3 of the past 4 games.
5. Loyola (10): The ECAC can still put 2, if not 3 teams in the NCAA tournament. Loyola still has a critical at-large contest against Hopkins to end its regular season.
6. Penn (9): Penn is now in jeopardy of missing out on the Ivy tournament. They still have Dartmouth on its schedule and have a critical out of conference matchup against Bellarmine. This team may be on the way out.
7. Yale (12): As noted, Yale picked up two big wins this weekend. Meanwhile, Princeton has gone from borderline hosting a first round game to not even being in the discussion with its loss to Dartmouth.
8. Johns Hopkins (16): Johns Hopkins dropped its contest against Navy in astonishing fashion last season. This game should not be overlooked for the squad that recently improved its resume with a win over then-ranked #1 Maryland.

Last Four Out:
1. Bucknell (13): It appears to be a down year for the Patriot League. Its regular season finale against Colgate could not only help its PL seeding but also improve its at large chances.
2. Villanova (20): Villanova took down St. John’s on the road to add its second top 20 win. Villanova’s at-large hopes come down to this weekend against ND. The game could also improve its AQ chances by giving it the #1 seed in the BE tournament.
3. Ohio State (14): Ohio State’s RPI dropped after playing Michigan this weekend. This team has a critical road game this weekend against Air Force.
4. Drexel (15): Drexel will play Towson this weekend, but will then face High Point in what will certainly crush its RPI.

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